Doubts about season finale as Zaragoza face the drop

Real Madrid's clash against Zaragoza on the weekend could be the last of the season, at least for the team from the capital, as it emerged that next Sunday's match may not go ahead. The relegation-bound Levante players have decided to go on strike, as they have not been paid for several months, thus potentially spoiling Real's planned end-of-season party. For their part, the Zaragoza players have bigger problems to worry about, as the 2-2 draw with Real Madrid leaves them in the relegation zone. Their destiny, however, is still in their own hands, as a win away to Mallorca would ensure survival.

Schuster decided to leave both Raúl and Casillas, who had not missed a league game all season, as well as Pepe, back in Madrid to give some of the less used players a run-out. With Dudek in his first league game of the season, and Metzelder back from injury for his first of the year, the Real coach opted for an offensive approach which yielded plenty of chances for either side.

The Zaragoza players' desperation was evident, however, as chance after chance went begging, many of them thwarted by Dudek's spectacular reflexes. The Pole may or may not see out his second year of contract, but he proved himself to be an able substitute for Casillas (although his positioning wasn't always ideal). It's just that, barring injury, there will be precious few chances for him to occupy the goalkeeping position. The omission of Casillas in this game (and probably next weekend as well) guarantees him the Zamora trophy for the best goalkeeper of the season. This is an accolade he has not won in 9 years of trying and which has not been won by a Real Madrid keeper since Paco Buyo won it in 1992, a legacy, perhaps, of Real Madrid's obsession with attacking football.

Zaragoza opened the scoring after 19 minutes, with Sergio García, easily their best man on the night (even with the dodgy pony-tail), making short work of Marcelo on the wing and crossing it for Oliveira's simple tap-in. It was not to last: although Higuaín had a rare start, he did not manage to maintain his four-game goalscoring streak; instead he threaded it through for Robinho, who was denied in his one-on-one with the keeper, only for Van Nistelrooy to pick up the rebound: a typical poacher's goal. Robinho himself put Real ahead with a well judged lob with just over 10 minutes to go, leaving Zaragoza to stare into the abyss of Segunda División.

Their desperation showing may have moved some of the Real players to pity them, at least if you believe the As match report. More likely it was the difference between a side playing for survival against a side with little to prove. As it was, Zaragoza's insistence eventually paid off and Sergio Fernández's clinical finish made it 2-2, matching the scoreline from last year's fixture, leaving them with a chance to save themselves next weekend.

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Dudek's chance?

So far this season Jerzy Dudek has only featured in the 4 Copa del Rey games played by Real Madrid. For the remainder of the time he has warmed the bench and watched Casillas from the sidelines. This was to be expected when he signed for Real Madrid in the summer, although he was nevertheless surprised last week to learn that he had not been named in the provisional 31-man Polish squad for the 2008 European Championships. However, an article in Marca claims he may get a chance in some of the remaining league matches, and, who knows, may even force the Poland manager (Leo Beenhakker, former Real Madrid manager; it's a small world!) to reconsider.

It all hinges on the Zamora trophy, awarded (by Marca, no less) to the best goalkeeper in the league every year. No Real Madrid keeper has won this since Paco Buyo back in 1992, but, right now, Iker Casillas is leading the standings with 30 goals conceded in 33 games.

The rules state that the keeper with the lowest goals to games coefficient wins the trophy, as long as they have played 60 minutes or more in 28 matches throughout the season. The current table looks like:

Player	Team	Goals	Games	Coefficient
Casillas	Real Madrid	30	33	0.91
Valdés	Barcelona	31	33	0.94
Ricardo	Osasuna	33	32	1.03
Pato	Getafe	36	29	1.24
César	Zaragoza	50	32	1.56
Sorrentino	Recreativo	54	33	1.64
Toño	Racing	23	27	0.85

The argument is that Schuster may rest Casillas once the league title has been won (which could be as early as this coming weekend if Real wins and neither Villareal nor Barcelona get all three points in their respective away ties) to help him win this personal accolade and 'lock in' his low coefficient. Although Racing de Santander's Toño has a lower coefficient (he's one shy of the 28 games required, hence his position on the table) his team is in contention for a Champions League place so he's expected to play in every one of their remaining games (Mallorca, Murcia, Sevilla, Athletic and Osasuna).

Personally, I find this scenario rather unlikely. Casillas may very well want to win this trophy, but I think that keeping his match fitness in the run-up to Euro 2008 is far more important, so he may take the risk of conceding less goals than Toño and his other pursuers. Still, it would be nice to give the 'hero of Istanbul' a run-out once or twice before the season is out to reward his patience.

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Transfer boredom

Given the week-long gap between games at this stage of the season, press reports on Real Madrid during the greater part of the week have been concentrating on possible transfer movements during the summer. I normally don't bother reporting 90% of this stuff as it's more often than not concocted out of thin air, so I tend to wait till it's either officially announced, or the buzz is so insistent that there's a good chance it will happen. But I thought it would be at least amusing to record what is being said and then come back next September, after the transfer window closes, to see whether there was any truth in any of the stories.

The list of possible additions to the squad includes the following:

• Diego: His transfer was already hinted at after his display against Real Madrid for Werder Bremen in the Champions League earlier this season. In recent days, his father (and manager) confirmed a number of clubs, including Real, have expressed an interest.
  
• Huntelaar: As insists Chelsea and Real will fight it out for the Ajax striker.
  
• De Rossi: Mijatovic was in Rome this week to watch Roma and Manchester United in their Champions League quarter final tie and allegedly ask about the contractual situation of a number of players. De Rossi would theoretically be a replacement for Diarra, but with more technical ability.
  
• Aquilani: Mijatovic also looked at this more attack-minded Roma midfielder, although it is hard to see where he would fit in given the large number of players able to fill this position.
  
• Vucinic: The third Roma player allegedly in Real's books, although supposedly as a back-up striker should other options not pan out.
  
• Garay: Supposedly going to Barcelona at the end of the season, the Catalan club's interest has reportedly cooled following an injury that will keep him out until the end of the season. Real may therefore join the bidding, while Spurs and Liverpool also expressed an interest earlier this year.
  
• Luis Fabiano: Interest in the Sevilla striker seemed to wane after his performance at the Bernabéu last Sunday, where he was even less able to slot one in the back of the net than Higuaín.
  
• Drogba: Sport claims he would follow Mourinho to his next club, and they're convinced that Schuster won't be at the helm next season, so there you go...
  
• Quaresma: If FC Porto, at the centre of a match-fixing scandal, is relegated, some of its stars may seek clubs with Champions League potential. This is what happened when Real scooped up Cannavaro and Emerson from Juventus, although in the latter's case, it did not have much of a happy ending.
  
• Cristiano Ronaldo: His name is mentioned in connection with every major European club pretty much every week, although As did manage to trick his mother into posing with a Real Madrid shirt and say her son had always wanted to play for the club.
  
• De la Red: His agent has stated that Real will exercise their 4.5 million euro buy-back clause with Getafe in the summer, presumably with a view to selling him on for a profit elsewhere.
  
• Javi García: He has the same agent as De la Red, and the story is the same, although the club involved is Osasuna.

In terms of those leaving the club, elconfidencial claims there is a "blacklist" of players who will be put up for sale in the summer. This includes Dudek, Salgado, Metzelder, Cannavaro, Diarra, Baptista, Saviola and Soldado. I'd be surprised if both Cannavaro and Metzelder leave, as this would leave the centre of defence rather short of players, even if Garay was signed to replace one of them. Also, from a performance perspective, Cannavaro has had a solid if not brilliant season (regardless of his detractors) and Metzelder has been blighted by injury, so Schuster may give him a chance if he recovers and starts the preseason well. On the striker front, both Saviola and Soldado have been massively underused, so it's almost a given that if clubs are found to take them they will leave.

elconfidencial also claims that an additional four players will be loaned out to let them gain additional experience: Marcelo, Gago, Higuaín and Drenthe. I'm skeptical about this; I think one or at the most two may leave, but not all four.

Sport would have us believe that it is Ruud van Nistelrooy's dream to be a top scorer at each of Europe's main leagues, and thus he is eyeing a move to Italy (more specifically AC Milan) while he can still cut it at the top level. Though the report was published on April 1st, I suspect this is more of a flight of fancy than a April Fool's story (especially since the Spanish "celebrate" this in December).

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From Russia with goals

Rather than go into details about the two matches Real Madrid played in Moscow, I'll concentrate on a few of the things to take away from the performances we've seen in the preseason so far.

Results-wise, it's not been too bad (the exaggerated 3-0 scoreline against Hannover aside). All the teams faced so far are at least a couple of weeks further along in their preseason training than Real Madrid; this makes a big difference at this stage. In the case of Lokomotiv, they are actually half-way through their season (which must be worrying for them, given the 5-2 score, but then again, perhaps their attention was focused elsewhere). Also it's clear Schuster is moving all the pieces around to see how well they fit into his scheme. He clearly still has some work to do. Whether new signings will come in to supplement what's already there remains to be seen, the bleatings of the sports press notwithstanding.

• Dudek showed off his impressive reflexes, although he could've done better in the second goal against PSV, but Casillas now knows he cannot rest on his laurels. I still see him as second-choice, though.
  
• Metzelder has had a worrying lack of opportunities: he did not play against Hannover or PSV and only part of the game against Lokomotiv, where his performance was not up to par. Let's hope this is not the shape of things to come.
  
• Pepe, on the other hand, is looking settled already and shows perhaps why Real paid so much money for him. However, if Cannavaro and Metzelder don't pull their socks up, Ramos may be joining him in the centre of defence, rather than on the right wing.
  
• Twelve months on, there is still no replacement for Guti (not Gago or de la Red). Capello had similar troubles last season finding someone else with the creativity to open up defences and link up Real's midfield and forward lines.
  
• Saviola got off the mark in both games, although the first came from the penalty spot. He's also been doing his set-piece homework, connecting with Guti's inch-perfect set-up from a free kick to score Real's only goal against PSV. However, Real are clearly still missing Van Nistelrooy up front.

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More transfer moves

After a quiet week on the transfer front, Friday saw the arrival of a goalkeeper already legendary for his penalty saving antics in the 2005 Champions League final and the departure of a central defender who has been at the club since 1999 and has winners medals for, among others, 2 Champions League and 3 Spanish league titles.

Jerzy Dudek will surely not be expecting a great deal of change in his circumstances. He has been warming the bench at Liverpool for the best part of two seasons wince his pivotal role in that Champions League win in Istanbul back in 2005. Rafa Benítez has preferred Pepe Reina over him and there's virtually no expectation that Schuster will prefer him over Casillas. Curiously enough, Reina is the second choice goalkeeper in the Spanish national squad, behind Casillas.

However, the departure of Diego López to Villareal left Real Madrid without a quality replacement goalkeeper. Unless Casillas gets injured, it's unlikely Dudek will get many chances to play except in the Copa del Rey or any low-risk (whatever that means) Champions League ties. At 34, he is still young enough in goalkeeping terms for several years at the top level. Perhaps he'll yet get his chance to shine.

Iván Helguera, on the other hand, is a couple of years younger than Dudek, but many feel he has less time left at the top. What he lacks in speed he makes up in his awareness and positioning, and has a knack for scoring a few headers per season. After a torrid time in 2006 where he barely played, circumstances gave him another chance which he grabbed with both hands. His contribution at the back last season was extremely valuable and helped Real to their 30th league title.

The club has tried to make up for the tough times he faced when he was stripped of his shirt number and was forced to train with the youth team players. His contract had an incentive clause that would guarantee him a 1 million euro bonus if he completed 45 minutes or more in 30 games during the season. His unfortunate injury a few weeks before the end of the season left him 13 minutes short of the requirement, but the club waived the requirement and paid him his bonus. In today's move to Valencia, Real Madrid has allowed him to go for free, even though he still had two years left on his contract. Obviously there's a certain amount of good business sense here, given that two new central defenders have been signed in the past week and Helguera was unlikely to get much playing time, especially if Cannavaro stays put at Real Madrid.

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