Bye Bye Brazil, Hello Holland

Real Madrid's love affair with Brazilian footballers seems to be slowly coming to an end. At its height, back in Florentino Pérez's last season as club president, the squad boasted five Brazilians in its ranks: Roberto Carlos, Cicinho, Baptista, Robinho and Ronaldo. As of today, with the sale of Julio Baptista to Roma for €12 million, this number now stands at two: Robinho and Marcelo. If you listen to the sports press, and Robinho does end up in Phil Scolari's Chelsea, it could soon be just one.

There could be two factors at play in this changing trend: the most plausible one is that, Marcelo aside, all of the other Brazilian players were signed before Ramón Calderón's ascent to power at Real Madrid. And, apart from Roberto Carlos, they were all signed in Florentino Pérez's era. Calderón has not bothered to hide his dislike for his previous boss and has even gone so far as to accuse him of meddling in the affairs of the club following his resignation. He may be thinking of putting his own stamp on the squad by getting rid of those who arrived under Florentino. The second possible factor is the growing perception at Real Madrid of Brazilians as "problematic". In other words, a fondness for the party life and complaints when not selected in the starting 11.

It is no secret that Robinho is unsettled at the club. Marca goes so far as to suggest that he has told Calderón in person that he wants to leave, although the president has so far refused to entertain any offers from Chelsea. This contrasts interestingly with some of his statements during the Cristiano Ronaldo saga to the effect that he would never keep anyone at the club who was unhappy there.

The focus at the club, quite possibly heavily influenced by Bernd Schuster, has now shifted towards players perceived to be more solid, more reliable. This has resulted in an unprecedented number of Dutch players being signed. Van Nistelrooy was signed in 2006 (under Capello), followed by Robben, Sneijder and Drenthe last summer. The recent addition of Van der Vaart to the squad brings the total number up to five. The only nationality with a larger representation is, obviously, Spanish.

The Dutchmen have all, so far, integrated well at the club, and there are no obvious cliques being formed. Without generalising about national traits (a futile exercise, in any case), there is a feeling that these signings are contributing to building a more compact, resilient squad. More of a team than a bunch of talented individuals, in other words. And that can only be a good thing in the long run.

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Exodus...

Before the euphoria dies down, before the week passes that Calderón has asked for before making public any decisions on the make-up of the squad and coaching staff for next season, before the summer transfer market speculations reach fever pitch, I thought it would be a good idea to review what we know or think is likely to happen to some of those responsible for Real Madrid's 30th league title.

Definitely leaving:

• David Beckham - off to L.A. Galaxy after contract negotiations stalled. Was sidelined by Capello, who later recanted and brought him back. His resurgence meant a (so far) successful recall to the England squad, although he may find it difficult to justify this when playing in the MLS. Scored three goals this season and has the top number of assists in the club even though he only played 23 out of 38 games in the league.
  
  
• Roberto Carlos - recently announced he would be playing for Turkish side Fenerbahçe next season after being unable to agree terms with Real. A favourite with the fans, he leaves after 11 seasons and a large number of winners' medals and the label of one of the best-ever offensive left backs in the business (though perhaps not at his best on defensive duty)
  
  
• Francisco Pavón - out of contract, destiny not yet known. Did not get any playing time this season, Pavón has been unfairly linked with the previous presidential regime and their policy of "Zidanes y Pavones" (i.e. buying the best and bringing the rest up from the youth squads). Never really shone.
  
  
• Diego López - will join UEFA-cup bound Villareal next season. Totally sidelined by Casillas (who played in every league game this season) he only had a couple of appearances in the Copa del Rey

Probably leaving:

• José Antonio Reyes - likely to 'return' to Arsenal from loan (although he's said publicly he doesn't want to go back to London, so he'll be loaned or sold). His two goals in the last game of the season are unlikely to win him a reprieve.
  
  
• Antonio Cassano - after his spat with Capello last October has rarely featured, and has been all but invisible in the second half of the season (he was not at the celebrations last night). He's definitely for sale, if anyone is looking to buy someone with his obvious disregard for professionalism, that is.
  
  
• Iván Helguera - was on the transfer list last season and stayed after the negotiations fell through. Out of favour with Capello initially, he fought his way back into the team only to pick up an injury and find himself sidelined once again in the final games of the season. Metzelder's arrival will probably mean the club will find him a way out in the summer.

May be leaving:

• Fabio Capello - has publicly said he would like to see out his contract (but then, they all say that). Capello has made no secret of his unhapiness at the lack of support from the president (other than lip service in front of the press). Calderón has allegedly got a deal signed to bring in Schuster from Getafe, but the remarkable (and often fortunate) dénouement to the league championship puts this most populist of presidents in a quandary. Either way, his indecision will cost the club dear. It also puts the planning for next season in jeopardy, as it is still not clear who will be running things from a technical perspective. This, more than any other decision about players or staff, is crucial to Real's success next season, and for that reason, I would prefer Capello to stay, because continuity is easier than change and his style has been unjustly derided as lacking elegance. This is something not completely backed up by the team's performances in the second half of the season.
  
  
• Alvaro Mejía - only featured when all other central defenders were injured. Unlikely to stay.
  
  
• Michel Salgado - young Miguel Torres has taken his place in the starting line-up and is unlikely to relinquish it. Has two more years left on his contract, so the club may seek to offload him while they still can.
  
  
• Emerson and Cannavaro - after a poor start, somewhat redeemed in the second half of the season, their futures are probably tied to Capello's, as they, more than most, fit the mold of the type of player he prefers.

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Bravo gets a reprieve

To add to his current player management woes, Fabio Capello now has had his two left backs injured in the same week. First of all, Marcelo, fresh from his less than auspicious debut on Sunday at Riazor, injured his right ankle in training on Wednesday and is expected to be off for around six weeks.

Then, Roberto Carlos, who's only missed 10 games in as many seasons through injury, felt something give in his right calf in last night's Copa del Rey yawnathon against Betis and could be out for up to 4 weeks if the suspected muscle tear is confirmed.

All this means is that Raúl Bravo, who's been out of favour with Capello in recent weeks and was looking forward to another season on the sidelines, had to step into the breach. To be fair to him, though left-footed and generally a fairly solid defender, he's not really a specialist at left back and has mostly been used as a utility player, also filling in as a central defender where necessary.

Real did manage to keep a clean sheet against a Betis side missing a few of their regulars with a totally Spanish back four, with youth player Torres (no, not that one) joining Bravo, Sergio Ramos and Helguera. Dissenter Diarra made a come-back to a midfield where Gago bucked the trend at Real Madrid by constantly asking for the ball, rather than getting rid of it. Higuaín made his debut and showed some spark, which may see him get some more play in the league, but, with Capello, nobody really knows.

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The 'three amigos' could debut this Sunday

The three new arrivals to Real Madrid in the winter transfer market could all make their debuts for the club in the first match of the New Year against Deportivo La Coruña, if the reports coming from Spain are to be believed.

Fernando Gago is tipped to play alongside Emerson in midfield, as Diarra still seems to be out of favour with Capello following some indiscreet comments he made to Cassano before the game at Espanyol, and which, unfortunately for him, were caught on camera.

Roberto Carlos is doubtful for the game through injury after an accidental clash with David Beckham during training on Thursday. If he does end up not playing, it will only be his tenth game missed through injury in a 10-season career at the club. The Brazilian left-back could be replaced by his countryman Marcelo, as the only straight replacement in that position. Raúl Bravo, who has played as left-back in some of the few occasions when Roberto Carlos has been absent, is currently out of favour and rarely trains with the rest of the squad.

Earlier in the week, it was anticipated that Higuaín might be given a run-out in the second half, to replace the likely starter, Ronaldo, as van Nistelrooy was nursing an injury, and the only other striker, Cassano, is likely to be leaving the club in the next few weeks. However, van Nistelrooy seems to have recovered in the last couple of days, so his chances are rather slim.

Real Madrid will look to break their run of poor results at the Riazor stadium, where they have not won a league game against Deportivo for 15 years. Admittedly, Deportivo are not the force they once were, and have not won a league game out of the last nine, but Real need the three points if they are to keep up with the leaders.

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Brazilian 'oldies' to the rescue

Much has been made about the fact that Real Madrid's ageing squad is in desperate need of renewal if they are to be competitive in the coming seasons. Fabio Capello has been both vilified and lauded for what he calls "achieving miracles" with the players at his disposal. And yet, it was two of these players who scored the goals that resulted in Real's come-back against Athletic Bilbao: Ronaldo (30) and Roberto Carlos (33).

Once again, Real Madrid had to struggle to get all three points at home (14/21 so far, compared with 15/18 away), falling behind to a goal of dubious legality after 35 minutes, and playing the sort of football that would "bore sheep". Capello changed tack in the second half bringing Ronaldo and Beckham in for Reyes and Emerson, respectively. The Brazilian, especially, looked sharper than he has for some time and was seen running after balls with the same speed he used to run after the ice-cream van.

While Athletic's defence clearly contributed to the final turnaround in both goals, this article by Martí Perarnau has a good assessment of Real's effectiveness under Capello:

1. Defensive solidity: They have allowed 15 goals in 18 games in the League and Europe. This is the same number as Barcelona, arguably a much more attacking side. The number of unconverted goal chances (thanks mostly to MVP Casillas) means a 'Fail' in this category thus far.
   
2. Fast counter: Real have renounced patient passing play to adopt a counter-attacking style, which is proving lethal, both because of the speed, and the pushing up of players forward when this happens.
   
3. Scoring effectiveness: They have no equal in this category. They have scoring rations of over 60% per game; few opportunities, plenty of goals (on average 2 per game). Overwhelming.
   
4. Results: Three defeats in 18 games. No problems to qualify for the knock-out stages of the Champions League and 1 point from the top in the League. Superb.

Capello will find little in the way of weighty opposition to his methods as long as they deliver results. He has a good track record of doing this. Given that he's unlikely to win everything in sight, he's very unlikely to stay in the post for longer than two years. This is the quandary facing the Real Madrid management: Capello was brought in as a "surgeon" to chop away at all the deadwood and instil a winning attitude in the players. How then can he be expected to contribute meaningfully to the long-term make-up of the squad?

Highlights

Match report

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Marcelo: First of the youngbloods

Given three trophyless years, it is little surprise that Capello has based his current squad around experience rather than youth and energy. There are some concessions (Robinho, Sergio Ramos), but a large number of the starting eleven are fast approaching or on the 'wrong' side of 30. In this first year, he needs results to keep the wolves from the door and the fans happy; it seems the Real Madrid faithful don't have the patience of their Barcelona counterparts, who endured a 5-year dry spell and still (just) managed to have enough patience to give Rijkaard time to rebuild.

However, rumours abound about Real's seeking out the best young talent: Gago, Higuaín, and... Marcelo. This pint-sized eighteen year old left fullback is already touted as Roberto Carlos's successor with the Brazil squad: in his recent debut against Wales he even managed to get on the scoresheet. Other than size, he resembles his more veteran (33) countryman in that he "likes to get forward and join the attack but still has a lot to learn about defending".

The 7 million euro deal with Brazilian club Fluminense ties Marcelo to Real Madrid until 2012 from next January, although there's a good chance he will see most of his playing action in his first season with the Castilla 'B' team rather than with the first squad, particularly as he would fill a non-EU spot in the squad which may be taken up by subsequent signings.

On the same day, Real Madrid shored up the left flank of defence by renewing Roberto Carlos for an additional year until 2009, replacing the current agreement which would have required him to play a certain number of matches to be renewed.

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